After the debacle that was my use of Twitter to predict the outcome of American Idol, I decided to attempt redemption in the form of another online tool.  After doing some research, I realized that many fans of reality television were using grids made on Wikipedia to calculate statistics used for elimination predictions.  Statistics can be created for any show that uses a high-low-win system or a straight callout order system.  Donning my nerd cap, I delved into the world of reality television and Wikipedia articles to see if I could discover their true usability.

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An interesting study crossed my screen recently.  According to this press release, media agency Starcom USA, behavioral targeting network Tacoda, and digital consumer insight company comScore collaborated on a research study whose results call into question how well click rates on ads measure a consumer base.

The study states that only 6% of the total Internet population represents 50% of the clicks on ads.  Online media companies may use click rates as points of negotiation with their clients, but if this study is accurate, that measurement is not a clear view of how many people are seeing these ads.  Further measurements from the study show no correlation between display ad clicks and brand metrics, and show no connection between measured attitude towards a brand and the number of times an ad for that brand was clicked.

So who are these clickers?  Reading some forums concerning the topic led to some interesting, and occasionally probably ideas:

• Young children that may click more than they should
• Overly frugal consumers fiendishly looking for a great deal
• First time Internet users
• Employees who click on their own ads to raise metrics
• Professional ‘ad clickers' who are hired to click to raise metrics

The ‘Heavy Clicker' is profiled in the study.  These users are typically between the ages of 25-44 and households with an income under $40000.  They also spend four times more time online than the typical Internet user and are more likely to visit auctions, gambling, and career services sites.  Clearly, these are not typical Internet users, nor are they the type of people that many of the above suggestions implied.

As I mentioned in a past blog post, measuring click rates is archaic and unnecessary.  Ads on the Internet are not what they were promised to be-noninvasive and simple.

I think that it's actually sad that what could have been a great aspect of the Internet (essentially, selectable commercials) has been destroyed thanks to pop-up ads, spam, scams, and the need for online metrics.  It's time to move on to a new form of online advertising.

This is a going back to the basics post, but the private data you allow your Internet browser to save is an important topic.

Today my browser was acting up.  So, I decided to completely uninstall it and start from scratch.  I knew that one of the things that I would have to tackle is remembering passwords and usernames for several sites that I have registered for that I allowed my browser to simply remember for me so that I didn't have to enter this information in every time I visited the sites.  Fortunately, either I remembered this information or could find it in e-mails.

However, I've been thinking about what kind of price I pay for this convenience.  First, since browsers take care of the usernames and passwords, I don't have to think about them that much, and on occasions like these that leaves me scratching my head as I remember or dig for that information.  Second, sometimes browsers will incorrectly try to place a username and password from one site — or older ones — into another when you login, and that's annoying since you have to wrestle with your browser to not make things so convenient for you. 

I think that it is important every once in a while to do things the hard way and not allow the browser to take care of usernames and passwords for you so that you can remember them better.  Also, at times like these, it is worth questioning if you want your browser to remember such information for every site that you use. 

Does anyone refuse to allow browsers to store such information?  If so, why?

This is the final part of my four-part analysis of Facebook applications.  (For the preceding part, click here.)  In this section, I will attempt to make some conclusions and predictions from all of the data that I collected.  For a complete list of every single one of the Facebook pages that I analyzed, check at the bottom of the page for an Excel spreadsheet link.  The names of the users have been deleted, but originally I used them to avoid accidental repetition during my research.

One of the most notable aspects when you take a look at the graphs (a PDF of all the graphs from the previous posts is included at the bottom of the post) is that not a single user had recently deleted an application.  After looking at many users, I decided to check a few extended histories, but alas, I still found no deletions.  Personally, I have deleted applications in the past, so I am aware that it happens.  My theory is that users have begun to recognize when they want to add an application or not, and as such, are becoming more ‘picky' when they are presented with a new one.  This would explain why there are still several additions present within the data.  With so many applications now available, newer ones have to be worthwhile in order to garner interest from users.  This is still possible, as Bumper Sticker proves, being a fairly recent application itself and already in the Top Ten.

Speaking of the Top Ten, my inner predictions were accurate.  According to Adonomics.com, approximately 5%-10% of users have each of the individual applications installed, so if I am ranking ten of them, my statistics professor from college would be thrilled to know that I realized about half of the total users would have at least one of them.

It is also interesting to note that users that only have 1 to 2 applications typically had one of the Top Ten as that lone application.  This makes perfect sense, since many of these are Hug Applications.  Any user wanting to receive these pokes and hugs from other users must have the application installed; so many users probably have it simply to receive and not to give.  It's total Christmas Stocking Syndrome.

I was pleased to find that a clear majority of users (of those who actually had applications) have 5 or less applications in their profiles.  When I began this research study, I had a gut feeling that I would find more 9+ entries than any other kind of profile.  Perhaps it is that those profiles simply stand out more.  In my personal opinion, given that some of the user-created applications are fun, and dare I say, ‘useful,' it is perfectly reasonable to have five or fewer.

I was also not surprised to find that the majority of typical usage was for Extended Use.  Some of the notable Extended Use applications–other than the ones already explicitly mentioned in the study–were ones that allowed users to post bigger pictures and give extra information about themselves.  It's somewhat of an old Internet cliché: people do not want to be limited in anything that they are doing, no matter what it is.  I was a tad surprised that Online Games were the least used category, but then again, users of Facebook can find free online games in other avenues.  Why use Facebook when there are better games out there?

As I was researching prior to the study, I saw many web postings comparing Facebook to its main rival, MySpace.  One of the main advantages to Facebook, according to those writings, was that it was not cluttered like MySpace profiles.  I find it ironic that people add applications when this is the popular opinion.  Many of the applications take up much space on a profile, adding a cluttered feeling to the overall page.  Forget Christmas Stocking Syndrome, Facebook users suffer from wanting to have their cake and eat it too.

Excel Spreadsheet of Facebook Data Collected

All Pie Charts PDF

I owe a lot to the website craigslist.  It helped me find my current townhouse and housemates; it helped me find my current job; and it helped me find a great (and cheap!) dining room set.

The site began in 1995, with a very simple design.  Since that time, the design has not changed all that much.  "Keep it simple, stupid" is definitely the unspoken motto of the now-thriving entity.  There are very few graphics on the site, and the entire interface is very similar to newspaper classified ads.  Personally, I have always been a big fan of this design; I get very sick of watching flash intros to every other website on the market when I am foaming at the mouth to get to the actual content.

With an astounding 9 billion page views per month, yet only 25 employees, the website is well on its way to being the most used site on the web.  New cities and areas are added fairly frequently, with 450 being represented at the time of this post.  You can learn more about the wonder that is craigslist by visiting the "Fact Sheet" on their website.

Recently, and quietly, craigslist expanded its empire by introducing the first of several to come foreign language versions of the site.  Craigslist has never been one to make loud announcements about its new accomplishments and updates (just another reason to love it), and these new languages were implemented back in November of 2007.  Craigslist is now available in French, German, Italian, and Portuguese.  The individual areas of the site will continue to be community moderated.

The lack of multi-language support was the only thing stopping craigslist from being a bigger hit overseas, but with this welcomed foreign facelift, the site is poised to spread its influence even further.

If you've got a computer, you know what YouTube is.  In fact, most people, including myself, have uploaded videos to YouTube at one point or another until our accounts have inevitably been suspended.  It's the circle of life on the Internet, and I am very pleased with it.  Without YouTube after all, I would be unable to watch my guilty pleasure, America's Next Top Model.

What's the bad news about YouTube?  Well, the videos that are uploaded are typically of lesser quality.  In fact, the most common complaint that you will see on the video comment sections is about the quality.  In reply, most users will explain that "something" happened to their video during the upload process.  There is a hack to be able to view high quality version of videos, but soon, that hack will hopefully be rendered useless.

YouTube has finally announced all users have the option of watching some videos in higher quality. A blog post on their site claims they're slowly integrating this new feature, and videos uploaded in the proper format will be the first to be available in high quality. The rest of the library will soon follow, with any luck.

Simply go into your user account and select the option: "always show me higher quality when available." High speed Internet is going to work best, because otherwise the videos may suffer from lag time.  Nobody likes lag time.

I have been waiting for this feature for a long time.  Finally, my prayers have been answered, and I will soon be able to watch YouTubeHD.  There are enough capital letters in that word to make anyone excited.

"Ideas worth spreading" is the motto of a growing annual convention that is held in Monterey, California.  The Technology Entertainment Design (TED) conference covers a wide range of topics, from science to the arts, and nearly everything in between.  My fraternity brother, Chris, recently made me aware of this conference, which has been conducted since 1984.

There is an annual membership fee of $6000, however, this fee not only covers attendance to the events, but also attendance for other special gatherings and DVDs of the presentations.  Since not everyone can afford to be this enlightened, the official website was created in response, providing the highlights and best speeches from the conference.

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Combining aspects of things that people already enjoy is one of the best ways to make an impression on a market without having to be completely original or creative.  For the past couple of months, there has been a surge of such activity in the form of ‘angry' video game reviews.  These reviews combine aspects of life that many males (and some females) enjoy, including ranting, nostalgia, cheap Photo shopping, and dirty humor.  Taken together, these form a "review" of a classic video game.  The reviews have the taste level of an episode of Family Guy, but also have the marketability, as well.

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It finally happened to me; I was hit with my first spam message via my cell phone.  I was foolish enough to believe that spam stopped with email, but luckily I was prepared for this eventuality and deleted the message without opening it.  This is my first word of advice for anyone who receives one of these dastardly messages.  Merely opening the message may result in charges being sent to your cell phone.

Text message spam has grown to amounts of 1.1 billion last year, according to recent reports.  The cell phone spam problem has been something that has engulfed countries such as China and South Korea for years now (sigh…they are always ahead of us in technology!).  According to the CAN-SPAM Act passed in 2003, this should be illegal, but I have my doubts as to how many of these spammers are going to be caught.  However, after some exhaustive research, I have come up with a five-point plan for combating requests for purchases of fake stocks and penis pumps. (more…)

While there is plenty of discussion out their about how news organizations of all types are trying to handle the migration of eyeballs, ears, and advertising dollars to the Internet, there's another important issue — especially when considering news content distributors like NPR and their relationship with their affiliates.  Since similar organizations like the Associated Press, Bloomberg, and Reuters also have news sites of their own, it is important to ask: How can distributing and producing content on the Internet help both the distributor and affiliate? 

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Social networking giant Facebook is teaming up with Paramount Pictures to let users download thousand of clips from the filmmaker’s archives.

The VooZoo application, which launched Monday, was developed by FanRocket. The idea is to let individuals re-live some of their favorite scenes and moments from any Paramount film. Clips last anywhere from a few seconds to several minutes.

Viacom, Paramount Pictures’ parent company, plans to market DVDs through the new tool.

Though FanRocket aims to garner a few hundred thousand users within the first few months, Paramount hasn’t set any revenue goals to its end.

The application features a double-pane window on top – the left side shows the clips you’ve added yourself. On the right, you’ll find a display of your history, with ‘Featured VooHoos,’ or featured clips, just underneath.

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In mid-November I wrote a post featuring nine technology predictions for late 2007 and early 2008. Some of those were quite forward-looking (up to 6 months). Some were not. Below I go over the predictions I made whose time has already come and gone.

1. The ASUS Eee laptop is going to sell like hotcakes over the holiday season and other manufacturers will soon follow suit in creating light, barebones, home-use laptops. Predicted for mid-January.
This prediction, while it wasn’t particularly hard to make, actually came true. As a result, other manufacturers are tripping over themselves to try to get a piece of the sub-notebook market. Just check out a search for “eee” on Gizmodo…
Right on!

2. RIM will release a 3G Blackberry and the Curve will prove to have been a huge success. Predicted for mid-February.
The Pearl is now 3G on Sprint, likely with others to follow soon and the Curve has been a massive hit for RIM.
Right on!

3. The Wii will outsell all other game consoles, but the number of game sales per owner will be significantly lower than on other platforms. Predicted for mid-February.
Yay! Another prediction come true, kind of …
Just on.

4. Google will embrace OpenID and it will finally take off. Predicted for mid-February.
This hasn’t happened But who’s to say it won’t in the future? I think it might in the next 3 months so I’m going to extend this prediction a little longer…
Wrong.

5. The Blu-Ray and HD-DVD camps will start collaborating and the price of Bu-Ray and HD-DVD media will be sub-$20. Predicted for mid-May.
This prediction looked 6 months forward from the date of the original post, but we may as well write it off as HD-DVD is now officially dead, which I inferred would happen earlier in the year (no crystal ball was that necessary for that one after Warner stopped supporting HD-DVD).
Wrong.

So, discounting Google and OpenID and my generous extension of my own prediction deadline by 3 months, 3 out 4, as Meatloaf might say, ain’t bad. More updates in another 3 months…

Linux-based GUIs

I bought an ASUS EEE sub-notebook a couple of months ago. In fact I’m writing this on the EEE, connected to a 19 inch monitor and a regular keyboard. The interface is suprisingly simple and functional and I did not need to know anything about Linux to get started. It’s a custom-made interface for the EEE built using parts of a full-fledged Linux interface and applications. Here are some screenshots to give you an idea:

I don’t miss Windows at all. Really. Granted, I just use the machine for web browsing, email and document and spreadsheet editing, but I would have never guessed I would be saying it was a good enough substitute to Windows for me.

Adobe Air

In other news, Adobe has just launched a cross-OS application development platform called Air. I honestly haven’t done a lot of research into it, but essentially it allows developers to easily, quickly, and cheaply create internet-rich desktop applications that will run on any OS, including Macs and Linux.

Alternatives to Windows

If Adobe Air really takes off, the applications created with it will work on any OS, allowing users to easily migrate to a new OS (say, from Windows to Linux) without sacrificing their use of applications they’ve come to know and love.I think it can now truly be said that with the emergence of these kinds of accessible technologies that true alternatives to using Windows are just a stone’s throw away.

So while reaching the $21 billion plateau for the first time sounds great, the growth of internet ad revenues is also slowing down.

The data, collected by the Interactive Advertising Bureau, suggests revenues grew an estimated 25 percent last year, up from $16.9 billion in 2006. That’s a whole 10 percentage points lower than the previous year’s growth.  Even the dollar figure was lower, with a $4.2 billion increase compared to $4.3 billion in 2005.

The increasingly torpid growth was forecasted by many analysts though. As the internet continues to soak up more of the advertising stream, this has meant less money for traditional outlets like newspapers. Still, the internet only occupies about 10 percent of all American ad spending, which means plenty of room for growth, albeit slower.

There are some variables that may contribute to the slowdown in growth not accounted for IAB's figures. We’re arguably in a recession, and one of the first things companies do when the pockets get thin is cut ad spending. Some of the big boys like MSN, Yahoo!, and AOL are even having a rough go of it lately.

A full breakdown of the numbers is expected to be released by the Interactive Advertising Bureau in May.

The Future of Web Apps Conference will be held on the East coast for this first time ever this year, hitting the beaches of sunny Miami February 28th. It’ll be interesting to follow the developments that emerge from this year’s event. Speakers and participants are slated to discuss everything from startups to social networks.

Also on the agenda is a “Launch a web app in 40 minutes” feature, which will be led by a moderated panel of some of the smartest web developers.  You can vote for what kind of application the panel will attempt to assemble through TechCrunch.

Wordpress and Google will be represented among the 14 speakers confirmed thus far. Various workshops will also be available for those in attendance, including a “Making Money From Your App” session.

The Future of Web Apps Conference comes to a close March first.