[This is cross-posted at The ImpactWatch blog.]

J.W.'s American Idol Twitter prediction about which contestant would end their run last night was wrong.  Brooke White did not go home despite having a disastrous restart during her song while Carly Smithson performed well this week — even garnering praise from Simon Cowell.

I think that J.W. had a novel idea, but why was his prediction wrong? 

There's an excellent chance that those who use Twitter aren't representative of the ardent American Idol voter.  While I don't know the demographics of the voting population, Twitter is new and geeky enough that it wouldn't surprise me if this was the case.

Here's an anecdote about why I know Twitter isn't that widespread yet. Twitter inputs my tweets into Facebook and lists them in my status updates.  My friends see: "Steve Petersen is twitter: …"  Although my friends do show social media tendencies by using the site, some of them have no idea of what Twitter is.  One asked me, "What's with all this twittering?''  While another wondered if I was constantly nervous.

Now, I'm not saying that my friends accurately represent the American Idol voter, but they probably are more like the voter than a group of people who use a geeky (I use that with pride) site.  If some of my friends understand and enjoy social media enough to use a social network but are not aware of Twitter, then tweeters are in a smaller subset of the population than my friends who use social networks.  Needless to say, I have many friends who either don't want a Facebook account or lack the desire to social media (let alone Twitter) on-line.

Further, I doubt that everyone who positively tweets about a contestant votes for that person.  Also, I know people who vote multiple times for the same person each week, and even if a Twitter user voted for the contestant whom they wrote about, how are we sure that they voted once, twice, or nine times?

My predictions were absolute rubbish, it seems.  Apparently, tweets cannot be used to accurately predict who is going home from American Idol.  In fact, two of the top three positive tweet-getters were the ones that were unceremoniously in the Bottom Two.  Syesha Mercado and Carly Smithson had the least votes after their performances on Tuesday night, despite having the most positive tweets found during my Tweet Scan.

Interestingly, Mercado and Smithson were the two contestants with the fewest positive tweets BEFORE their performances of this week.  This may indicate that overall twittering can predict the voting habits of America better than spur of the moment written notions.

Will we ever find a way to predict American Idol?  I researched some of the other methods previously mentioned in this post, and none of them predicted a Carly elimination.  With that, Fox Television continues to remain a mystery.

For the second part of my study concerning whether tweets from Twitter could be used to predict the losing contestants of American Idol, I decided to wait until noon to make sure that there were enough new tweets to equal the amount used in the analysis last week.  Fortunately, there were more than enough fresh, unique tweets discussing last night's episode.

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Once again, the Internet is abuzz with predictions and theories about who is going to win American Idol.  In the early days of the competition (back when Kelly Clarkson was still a nobody singing karaoke and we only hypothesized that we hated the British without actually knowing it through Simon Cowell), there was much less web traffic about the show.  This season and the previous one, however, it's all the Internet can talk about.

This leads people in finding numerous ways to predict who of the now-6 remaining contestants will be voted off each week.  After all, this is a show that purports that the American public gets to decide who is going to stay and who is going to go.  Polls, blogs, and fansites may all play an important role in deciding the overall victor, much like a modern day political campaign. 

TV Squad, a popular television site, uses polls from various sources as well as their own intuition to predict the next bootee.  Most of the polls incorrectly predicted Syesha Mercado's demise, while the real loser was Kristy Lee Cook.  Obviously, this is not an accurate way to predict the contestant with the lowest votes.  The polls are simply too specific in the sense that only those Internet snoopers that come across them will actually get a chance to vote in the poll.  This does not represent an accurate view of the American public.

DialIdol.com has found a more inventive way to predict the successful contestants.  Their software measures the busy signal of each phone line to determine who is getting the most votes.  They started the program during the previous season, but achieved only moderate success in the predictions.  The company also sells software to enable one person to vote many times for a contestant.  Many sites have reported that the software is now known by the American Idol producers and rarely works anymore.

Tivo also found a creative way to measure the votes.  The company claims that they can predict who is going to be voted off by which minutes of the recorded programs are re-watched.  The theory is that Idol favorites will have their performances re-watched by their adoring public, while soon-to-be eliminees will have fewer views.  Unfortunately, the system seems to not be altogether accurate, since Tivo has incorrectly predicted Mercado two weeks in a row.

Another social media company, BuzzLogic, uses their "influencer blog" ratings to follow the entire competition via their blog.  I was impressed by the fledgling company's efforts at first glance, but upon closer inspection realized that few, if any, of their predictions have been true.  In addition, BuzzLogic gives very little explanation when they are incorrect.  This does, however, bolster my recent opinion that Katie Paine's connection between online activity and offline activity is flawed.  Many ‘influential' bloggers may be writing about certain candidates for American Idol, but that does not necessarily mean that they are voting for them, or voting at all.

I decided to tackle the task of predicting American Idol, ImpactWatch style.  Instead of using news articles, I used Tweet Scan to analyze 90 tweets per remaining contestant, using two separate searches for each.  I searched for each contestant's full name as well as their first name and the phrase "American Idol".  I read and ranked each tweet post as positive, negative, or neutral.

There are two reasons why I believe this method to be more valid than the other ways that were described above.  First, tweets represent impulses and first impressions, which I assume mirrors the mindset of actual voters.  Secondly, this is the only method that ascribes a positive or negative take on the information.  Polls just rank the favorite, while the Tivo system lacks any real information about why certain parts of the show are re-watched.  BuzzLogic's system has merit, but suffers from the need of personal input by its bloggers to explain anomalies in the amounts of influencer blogs.

Using my ImpactWatch inspired protocol, I found that David Cook and Jason Castro have the highest amount of positive tweets.  Sure enough, after doing some extended research, I found that the two received much praise for their performances last week.  All three females had an identical number of negative tweets (45), but Mercado has the lowest amount of positive tweets at a scant 30.  This is preliminary, but on Wednesday morning, I will post an updated tweet analysis (since Tuesday is when the contestants will perform their new songs).  Voters will most likely be tweeting away while they are waiting to vote.  Let's see if I can accurately predict which Idol will fall.

My current results are summarized below, using a graph created using ImpactWatch.

[This is cross-posted at our ImpactWatch site]

The overly popular Facebook social network has recently seen a surge of ‘applications' added to its roster.  Users hoping to enhance the experience of the social platform create these applications.  As of January 2008, there are over 14,000 applications in circulation among users.  The uses of these applications range widely; in July 2007, the first Facebook-only venture capital firm (Altura 1 Facebook Investment Fund) was released to the public.  They have gotten so popular that Stanford University recently debuted a class where the end product is Facebook application.  The great success of this class most likely means that many more schools will soon follow suit, offering more classes on social network metrics and creation.

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Today the Newseum , Washington's museum about the news, is officially opening to the public. 

I was able to visit the museum a few weeks ago since a friend of mine is a volunteer there, and many things interested me about it.  One of the most prominent thoughts that I walked away with was although the museum mainly focuses on newspapers and TV news, it devoted what I consider a surprising amount of attention to new media. 

There are exhibits that explored the heated debate about whether how blogging can fit into journalism and vice versa.  In fact, I walked out with the impression that — at least in the eyes of the Newseum — some blogging is solid journalism. 

Of course, personalities like the original Wonkette, Ana Marie Cox herself, and Matt Drudge were featured.  Further a major focus of the Bloomberg Internet, TV and Radio Gallery is how the Internet has affected journalism.

Unsurprisingly, many major news organizations are ogling over a museum devoted to glorify their business, and hopefully, its emphasis on new media will help alleviate some of the resistance of some journalists and organizations to the burgeoning importance of new media — from blogging to podcasts to flash presentations.

Despite the constant emergence of new technology, old trends still reappear from time to time to remind us all that some times the best things were in the past.  The glorious return of point-and-click adventure games to console gaming marks one of these occasions.

I used to absolutely love point-and-click games for my first computer.  Each one came on its own floppy disk and was DOS gaming at its finest.  My pride and joy was a collection of all three sequels to the Hugo's House of Horrors series, purchased for me by my mother.  The appeal of the games is that they contain so many secrets that the replay value tends to be through the roof as avid gamers play again and again to find every single Easter egg possible.

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If you've got a computer, you know what YouTube is.  In fact, most people, including myself, have uploaded videos to YouTube at one point or another until our accounts have inevitably been suspended.  It's the circle of life on the Internet, and I am very pleased with it.  Without YouTube after all, I would be unable to watch my guilty pleasure, America's Next Top Model.

What's the bad news about YouTube?  Well, the videos that are uploaded are typically of lesser quality.  In fact, the most common complaint that you will see on the video comment sections is about the quality.  In reply, most users will explain that "something" happened to their video during the upload process.  There is a hack to be able to view high quality version of videos, but soon, that hack will hopefully be rendered useless.

YouTube has finally announced all users have the option of watching some videos in higher quality. A blog post on their site claims they're slowly integrating this new feature, and videos uploaded in the proper format will be the first to be available in high quality. The rest of the library will soon follow, with any luck.

Simply go into your user account and select the option: "always show me higher quality when available." High speed Internet is going to work best, because otherwise the videos may suffer from lag time.  Nobody likes lag time.

I have been waiting for this feature for a long time.  Finally, my prayers have been answered, and I will soon be able to watch YouTubeHD.  There are enough capital letters in that word to make anyone excited.

Last Friday Salon.com and the Silicon Alley Insider reported that anyone can jump the Wall Street Journal website pay wall for free.

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I currently own a fifth-generation iPod that is about to breathe its last breath.  After damaging the screen over a year ago, I have been waiting for the release of the next generation of iPods so that I could justify buying a new one.  Now that the iPod Touch is releasing a 32GB version, I figure the time is nigh.  But what to do with my old iPod?  It has given me many years of dedicated service in avoiding the awful remixes played at the gym, so it deserves a proper afterlife.

Unfortunately, according to Second Rotation, I would not receive a lot, if anything, for my poor MP3 player in resell.  I suppose that this hilarious parody from MadTV should have tipped me off sooner.

Fortunately for me, there will soon be another option for my dilemma.  According to the PR Newswire, The US Post Office is going to start a "Mail Back" program that will be featured in approximately 1500 post offices across the nation, including locations in San Diego, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Washington, DC.  Consumers will be able to use free envelopes (postage-paid) to mail in inkjet cartridges, PDAs, Blackberries, digital cameras, iPods and MP3 players.  Postage for the envelopes is paid for by Clover Technologies Group, a company that recycles, remanufactures and remarkets inkjet cartridges, laser cartridges and small electronics. 

The Group refurbishes and tries to resell your mailed-in item.  If this cannot be done, its component parts are reused to refurbish other items, or the parts are broken down further and the materials are recycled. Clover Technologies Group has a policy that the company does everything it can to avoid contributing any materials to the nation's landfills.

Sounds good.  I know where my current iPod is going once I purchase the iPod Touch (which will be obsolete in two weeks, I estimate).  Next step, saving up $500 for the new one.

"Ideas worth spreading" is the motto of a growing annual convention that is held in Monterey, California.  The Technology Entertainment Design (TED) conference covers a wide range of topics, from science to the arts, and nearly everything in between.  My fraternity brother, Chris, recently made me aware of this conference, which has been conducted since 1984.

There is an annual membership fee of $6000, however, this fee not only covers attendance to the events, but also attendance for other special gatherings and DVDs of the presentations.  Since not everyone can afford to be this enlightened, the official website was created in response, providing the highlights and best speeches from the conference.

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I was speaking with someone last night about how the 2008 presidential campaigns are using new media (blogging, web video, social networking, etc.), and the question about how to determine the success of these campaign came up.

One of the first things that came to my mind was media exposure.  I thought back to an article that awarding winning media critic Rory O'Connor wrote about a panel discuss he attended during Advertising Week back in 2006 in which Mark McKinnon, who has advised President Bush about media, and Democratic media strategist David Alexrod participated. (more…)

Combining aspects of things that people already enjoy is one of the best ways to make an impression on a market without having to be completely original or creative.  For the past couple of months, there has been a surge of such activity in the form of ‘angry' video game reviews.  These reviews combine aspects of life that many males (and some females) enjoy, including ranting, nostalgia, cheap Photo shopping, and dirty humor.  Taken together, these form a "review" of a classic video game.  The reviews have the taste level of an episode of Family Guy, but also have the marketability, as well.

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When I was young, I had a computer that displayed two colors, puke green and black, and I was happy with it.  I could type papers and play a second-rate version of Jeopardy.  It was all that I really needed.  Years later, I have a laptop that displays countless colors that I can bring with me wherever I feel like I need a computer.  Soon, as early as Spring 2008, I will be able to have a computer where I least need it:  my breakfast table.

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While there is plenty of discussion out their about how news organizations of all types are trying to handle the migration of eyeballs, ears, and advertising dollars to the Internet, there's another important issue — especially when considering news content distributors like NPR and their relationship with their affiliates.  Since similar organizations like the Associated Press, Bloomberg, and Reuters also have news sites of their own, it is important to ask: How can distributing and producing content on the Internet help both the distributor and affiliate? 

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